CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-28T22:04:11Z
## Message ID: 20231128-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-11-27T06:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~556 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 38 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 10/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001

2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-11-27T20:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~500 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -15/-4 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001

3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2023-11-27T23:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~997 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 32 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -37/38 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined arrival of these CMEs may affect OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CMEs will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-29T07:17Z, Psyche at 2023-12-01T10:27Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-30T07:48Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-30T06:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-11-30T13:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001, 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001, 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20231127_123900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 
A second enhancement in the WSA-ENLIL+Cone timeline at Earth is observed beginning around 2023-11-30T22:00Z.

CME 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 is associated with C3.8 flare with ID 2023-11-27T18:21:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-27T18:37Z. CME 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001 is associated with C5.5 flare with ID 2023-11-27T23:13:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2023-11-27T23:40Z.

CME 2023-11-27T06:48Z was previously analyzed separately (see notifications 20231127-AL-001 and 20231128-AL-001) and is included in this 3-CME simulation. 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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